Model for 218-190

The analysis of individual years in this period leads to the following results:

In addition, there are circumstantial indications that A.U.C. 536 = 218 and A.U.C. 546 = 208 were regular years, and weak indications that A.U.C. 552 = 202 was an intercalary year.

Hence we may assign the intercalations between A.U.C. 536 = 218 and A.U.C. 564 = 190 as follows:

We are left with three uncertain intercalations, one in A.U.C. 542 = 212 or A.U.C. 543 = 211, another in A.U.C. 548 = 206 or A.U.C. 549 = 205 and one more between A.U.C. 557 = 197 and A.U.C. 564 = 190.

The lengths of all intercalations are unknown, but are modelled as alternating between 22 and 23 days. Hence its implications for the distribution of intercalations, cannot be regarded as settled, the possible range is indicated in the table by text of the form "D = +N/-M", where N is the maximum number of days by which the true conversion could be early and M is the maximum number of days by which the true conversion could be late.

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